In the ever-looming shadow of global pandemics, the recent surge in diphtheria cases in Australia and the rapid spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda have sparked fears of another global health crisis. While the chances of a pandemic as severe as COVID-19 breaking out in any given year are estimated at around 2%, the implications of such an event are far-reaching. The question that looms large is: What virus might be responsible for the next global pandemic? The H5N1 avian flu, a strain that has already killed millions of birds and infected other animals, emerges as a particularly concerning candidate. Though no human-to-human transmissions have been reported yet, the human mortality rate is high, and Australia and Oceania remain the only regions in the world free of this strain. The good news is that there is a vaccine against it, and it's made by a local manufacturer. However, the recent decline in vaccination rates in Australia, coupled with the resurgence of diseases like endemic measles, is a cause for concern. The drop in vaccine coverage is causing smaller outbreaks that we don't want or need. The COVID-19 pandemic has taught us valuable lessons, and we are now in a much better position to respond to a global health crisis. However, if the next pandemic doesn't hit for 15 years or more, we may have forgotten what we learned during COVID-19. It's crucial for COVID-19 learnings to be included in university curricula so future experts and leaders are exposed to them. Australia also needs to continue developing and updating pandemic preparedness plans at national, state, and territory levels, and work on social determinants of health, like access to health services and trust in health authorities. While the risk of another major pandemic in the near future is high, the general public shouldn't lose sleep over it. Instead, they should take steps to protect themselves and others from localised outbreaks of diseases like diphtheria, measles, and syphilis. The key to preparedness lies in strong public health systems, informed communities, and high vaccination coverage. In the words of a CDC spokesperson, the question is not whether future infectious disease outbreaks and health emergencies will occur, but how well-prepared we are when they do.
